Quotables

"Given Bulgaria's excessive dependence on Russian gas, the halting of gas imports poses a serious challenge to the security of supply to the country," said Martin Vladimirov with Sofia-based think-tank Center for the Study of the Democracy.

"A cut to the deliveries to non-essential groups of consumers including the heavy industry cannot be ruled out," he said.

Vladimirov said Sofia should start immediate talks in cooperation with Greece with alternative LNG suppliers such as Qatar, Algeria and the United States to ensure the country's gas needs and negotiate an increase of Azeri gas imports.

“The Russian war against Ukraine has provoked a general public outcry against Putin's tactics,” said Martin Vladimirov, senior Russia analyst at the Sofia-based think tank Center for the Study of Democracy.

The change is “despite heavy Russian propaganda in mainstream media channeled by informal pro-Russian political, civil society and economic networks.”

“But when you see bombs falling on residential buildings in real time, there is little room to denying reality,” Mr. Vladimirov said.

Ognian Shentov, Chairman of the Center for the Study of Democracy, thinks Bulgaria's failure to reform the judiciary and clean up corruption should be seen as a greater European failure, as the same signs are being seen, at least in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

According to him, there has been a “state capture” in Bulgaria, in which the interplay of oligarchs, politicians and justice and security authorities makes society vulnerable to foreign actors as well.

The study -- published by the Bulgarian-based Center for the Study of Democracy on September 9 -- says Beijing’s growing economic footprint in Central and Eastern Europe over the last decade has coincided with a drop in legal and governance standards and raises concerns about the environment and rising debt levels in the region.

The report is the first wide-ranging study of China’s expanding presence in Central and Eastern Europe, which has seen Beijing become the region’s largest trading partner.

"Russia transports the gas, builds the pipeline and finances it through bogus companies that obscure the real background of the money flows," wrote the Sofia-based Center for Democracy Studies (CSD) in an analysis. With the deliveries and long-term contracts, Gazprom is also clogging the market in Southeastern Europe and making access more difficult for other suppliers, says Ruslan Stefanov from the CSD.

The Bulgarian think tank CSD noted as early as 2016 that the preference given to well-connected individuals in public procurement contracts has been widespread.

According to the Sofia-based Centre for the Study of Democracy, actual Russian foreign direct investment stock in Bulgaria amounts to €4.5 billion (equivalent to about 11% of GDP). Some analysts caution that endemic corruption, bilateral energy links, and alleged Russian ties to some political parties and interest groups may invite greater overall Russian influence in Bulgarian affairs.

Russia has skillfully leveraged existing and former security services networks that have been alive and well even three decades after the fall of the Communist regime.

The growing Chinese presence in the energy sector could jeopardize EU targets to reduce CO2 emissions.

According to a report last year by the Centre for the Study of Democracy, a Sofia-based think-tank, at least 35 per cent of public procurement contracts involve corrupt practices.